Is the refugee “crisis” a stealth attack on the Balkans? ~ conversations with Andrew Korybko.

Refugees wait for a train to Serbia on a track near a train station in Demi Kapija, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia EPA/NAKE BATEV

Refugees wait for a train to Serbia on a track near a train station in Demi Kapija, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia EPA/NAKE BATEV

Refugee “Crisis” Insights.

Speaking to the insightful Andrew Korybko today following a skype chat with the equally inspiring Navid Nasr and Eva Bartlett. We discussed the refugee crisis and effects in Europe, particularly on the Balkans.

Andrew: To summarize, I think that the US is shepherding the refugees just as it shepherds ISIL, using them to create a mass flow of people that will inevitably have devasting consequences for the transit states, in this case, Croatia as you brought up. As the former Yugoslavia is brought to its knees by these tens of thousands of transiting refugees, it will make the region even weaker and more pliant to American will.

As for Hungary, yes, I think that there is certainly a Color Revolution risk, but one mustn’t forget the one already ongoing in Macedonia, which will have early elections next spring. It’s quite foreseeable that as the refugees aren’t able to all get into Europe before the border crackdown, thousands of them will be left to sit in these transit countries and get distressed, with the western mainstream media over-propagating their situation. When the early elections come, I foresee some of them partaking in destabilizing measures on behalf of the color revolutionaries

Refugees wait at the Macedonian-Greek border near the town of Gevgelija, on August 22, 2015. Some 2,000 mostly-Syrian refugees spent a rainy night stranded in no-man's land between Greece and Macedonia as hundreds more began arriving on August 22, on their way to western Europe. The refugees and migrants, who have been there since August 20 spent the night sleeping on the ground despite heavy rain and temperatures which fell sharply during the night. Army troops were deployed throughout the forested hills which line the 50-kilometre (30-mile) border, army spokesman colonel Mirce Gjorgoski told AFP, giving no further details.  ROBERT ATANASOVSKI/AFP/Getty Images

Refugees wait at the Macedonian-Greek border near the town of Gevgelija, on August 22, 2015. Some 2,000 mostly-Syrian refugees spent a rainy night stranded in no-man’s land between Greece and Macedonia as hundreds more began arriving on August 22, on their way to western Europe. The refugees and migrants, who have been there since August 20 spent the night sleeping on the ground despite heavy rain and temperatures which fell sharply during the night. Army troops were deployed throughout the forested hills which line the 50-kilometre (30-mile) border, army spokesman colonel Mirce Gjorgoski told AFP, giving no further details. ROBERT ATANASOVSKI/AFP/Getty Images

Basically, Europe will find a way to crackdown for its own safety and security, and when that occurs, be it through new border measures or even a fence like Hungary, then tens of thousands will be left ‘stranded’ in the Balkans, where they’ll fester into major social and political sores that will burst open come spring.

Refugees and migrants shelter from the rain as they wait in no-man's land along the Macedonian-Greek border near the town of Gevgelija, on August 22, 2015. Some 2,000 mostly-Syrian refugees spent a rainy night stranded in no-man's land between Greece and Macedonia as hundreds more began arriving on August 22, on their way to western Europe. The refugees and migrants, who have been there since August 20 spent the night sleeping on the ground despite heavy rain and temperatures which fell sharply during the night. Army troops were deployed throughout the forested hills which line the 50-kilometre (30-mile) border, army spokesman colonel Mirce Gjorgoski told AFP, giving no further details.  AFP PHOTO /ROBERT ATANASOVSKI

Refugees and migrants shelter from the rain as they wait in no-man’s land along the Macedonian-Greek border near the town of Gevgelija, on August 22, 2015. Some 2,000 mostly-Syrian refugees spent a rainy night stranded in no-man’s land between Greece and Macedonia as hundreds more began arriving on August 22, on their way to western Europe. The refugees and migrants, who have been there since August 20 spent the night sleeping on the ground despite heavy rain and temperatures which fell sharply during the night. Army troops were deployed throughout the forested hills which line the 50-kilometre (30-mile) border, army spokesman colonel Mirce Gjorgoski told AFP, giving no further details. AFP PHOTO /ROBERT ATANASOVSKI

Even if one naively assumes that each refugee is ‘good-hearted’ and all that, they’ll inevitably be faced with hardship the longer they stay in a country that they both didn’t want to stay in, and that just simply doesn’t want them (for many reasons, mostly due to unwillingness to assimilate and integrate). Within the course of a few months, tops, as each of these relatively impoverished governments keep throwing hundreds of thousands of euros at the problem, the domestic population wlil get upset, and not only that, the refugees themselves will get restless. it creates an explosive situation, and as I mentioned in an interview posted on Oriental Review [https://www.facebook.com/Oriental.Review?pnref=lhc ] that I had with Slobodan Tomic from Skopje, it just moves the Balkans closer to the US’ ultimate scenario of a manipulated “Christian vs Islam” war, which only plays to its own divide and conquer ends and is totally against the interests of everyone in the Balkans, no matter their ethnicity or religion.

V: Chaos strategy?

A: Absolutely without a doubt. It’s also a last-ditch effort by the US to destroy the Balkans if it can’t fully control it, as it feels intimidated by Russia’s Turkish Stream (I call it Balkan Stream) project that will run right through the heart of it in a few years’ time.

It ties into Ukraine because Russia needs Balkan Stream since it will decommission all UA-transitting gas pipelines by 2019, so the Balkans take on a preeminent importance for its foreign policy. The more destabilized the Balkans get, the more this timeline might get pushed back, and consequently, if Russia is forced to physically rely on Ukraine for transit (not counting the new Nord Stream II that will be created), then it increases the US’ indirect containment of Russia and the influence it can wield over its foreign policy

Below are two articles from Andrew that expand upon our discussion and the points he made.

http://russia-insider.com/en/ri-exclusive-andrew-korybko-russia-and-chinas-geopolitical-strategies/ri8314

http://russia-insider.com/en/russia-and-chinas-peninsular-pivot-part-ii/ri8406

Also translated into Serbo Croatian by Joffe Maee.

Uvid u izbjegličku krizu sa osvrtom na Balkan. Govori: Andrew Korybko

Mislim da SAD usmjeravaju izbjeglice na isti način kao što to rade sa ISIL-om, tako što ih koriste da stvore veliki protok ljudi koji će neizbježno imati razarajuće posledice na tranzitne zemlje (npr. Hrvatsku). Kako je bivša Jugoslavija bačena na koljena zbog desetina hiljada tranzitnih izbjeglica, to će ovaj region dodatno oslabiti i učiniti podložnijim američkoj volji.

U Mađarskoj postoji rizik od Obojene revolucije, ali ne smijemo zaboraviti da se jedna već odvija u Makedoniji, u kojoj su prijevremeni izbori zakazani za naredno proljeće. Prilično je lako predvidjeti da kako nije moguće da sve izbjeglice uđu u Evropu prije zatvaranja granica, hiljade njih će ostati da čekaju u ovim tranzitnim zemljama, zbog čega će postati uznemirene, dok zapadni mejnstrim mediji budu preuveličavali njihovu situaciju. Kada dođe vrijeme održavanja prijevremenih izbora, predviđam da će neke od njih uzeti učešća u destabilizacionim mjerama u ime obojenih revolucionara.

U suštini, Evropa će već naći način da se obračuna sa svim ovim radi sopstvene bezbjednosti i sigurnosti, a kada se to dogodi – bilo putem novih graničnih mjera ili čak ogradom kao Mađarska, desetine hiljada će ostati „nasukane‟ na Balkanu, gdje će leći kao so na velike društvene i političke rane, koje će se raspuknuti na proljeće.

Čak i ako neko naivno pretpostavlja da svaka izbjeglica ima samo dobre namjere i slično, neminovno je da će se one suočiti sa teškoćama ostanka u zemlji u kojoj nisu ni htjeli da ostanu i koja njih ni ne želi (iz više razloga, uglavnom zbog nespremnosti da se asimiluju i integrišu). Za svega nekoliko mjeseci dok svaka od ovih relativno osiromašenih vlada bude nastavila da baca stotine hiljada eura na problem, domaće stanovništvo će se uznemiriti. I ne samo ono – i izbjeglice će postati nemirne. Nastaće lako zapaljiva situacija, a kao što sam rekao u intervjuu za Oriental Review sa Slobodanom Tomićem iz Skoplja, to će samo gurnuti Balkan bliže američkom ultimativnom scenariju izmanipulisanog hrišćansko-muslimanskog rata, koji će zavaditi pa zavladati u njihovu korist, a biće u potpunosti protiv interesa svakoga na Balkanu, bez obzira na njihovu etničku pripadnost ili vjeru.

Strategija haosa?

Bez sumnje. To je takođe poslednji pokušaj SAD da unište Balkan kad ga već ne mogu u potpunosti kontrolisati, jer su zastrašene ruskim projektom Turski tok (ja ga zovem Balkanski tok) koji će za nekoliko godina prolaziti po sred balkanske srijede.

To je povezano sa Ukrajinom, jer je Rusiji potreban Balkanski tok budući da će do 2019. godine biti zaustavljen sav provoz ruskog plina kroz Ukrajinu, čime će Balkan dobiti ogroman značaj za njenu spoljnu politiku. Što se Balkan više destabilizuje, ovaj će se rok više pomjerati, a ako je Rusija prisiljena da se ponovo osloni na Ukrajinu po pitanju tranzita (ne računajući novi „Sjeverni tok 2‟ koji je planiran za izgradnju), to će povećati američko indirektno obuzdavanje Rusije i uticaj koji SAD mogu imati na njenu spoljnu politiku.

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